Skammgóšur vermir ķ efnahagsmįlum

Birti hér meš hluta af greiningu dagsins eins og hśn lķtur śt frį John Hardy gjaldeyrisspekulant hjį SaxoBank.

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The rally in risk has reached enormous proportions and some time ago we felt that it was already getting long in the tooth - at this point, as the UK Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard puts it in today's great opinion piece, "even the hard-bitten bears are starting to throw in the towel...". And it is tempting to throw in the towel after the Friday flourish to the recent rally in risk. But we need to keep our conviction that a return in risk aversion is still the greatest risk in the medium term even as the short term has thrown us a curve. There is nothing in the structure of the Western economies that will allow a recovery beyond a weak uptick that has been fed by money printing and a mild inventory refresh cycle. And China needs more time for its transformation to a more balanced economy, a transformation that will most likely require sweeping changes in the social safety net and property laws. With the last major batch of event risks behind us and earnings season now out of the way, it may soon be time for the market to begin to reassess its convictions, a process that could start already this week. There may be enough momentum in the market to carry us another percent higher in EURUSD, for example, or another surge in AUDUSD, but signs are likely to emerge of faltering conviction soon. As the saying goes, of course, the challenge to all of us with these convictions, of course, is that the "markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid." (from Keynes). Still, there are signs of weakness in conviction already in Monday's European session, as the JPY is fighting back and US treasuries look strongly bid

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John vill meina aš žetta sķšasta rally ķ hlutabréfum sé nęstum į enda og ég verš aš taka undir meš honum aš ég er honum sammįla. Gjaldeyrismarkašur og hlutabréfa markašur hanga saman ķ gegn um įhęttuvilja fjįrfesta. Žetta ver venjulega žannig aš ef menn eru bjartsżnir (bull markašur  og žess vegna įhęttuvilji mikill) žį selja menn venjulega jen og svissneskan franka en kaupa įstralskan dolla eša ašra mynt žar sem śtflutningurinn er hrįvara. Vaxtastig ķ viškomandi landi hefur lķka įhrif og žį er talaš um vaxtamunar višskipti. Jafnframt kaupa menn hlutabréf. Žetta er svo aftur öfugt žegar įhęttuvilji er lķtill (bear markašur). Žessar reglur eru aš sjįlfsögšu žumalputtareglur og menn verša aš bęta inn ķ žetta gögnum frį viškomandi löndum. En grundvallar reglan er aš žegar allt gengur vel eykst eftirspurnin eftir hrįefni og ž.a.l. hękkar gengi hrįefnaframleišenda. Ég held aš skuldsetning vesturlanda og žį sérstaklega USA sé oršin žaš mikil aš viš eigum eftir aš fį mörg įr meš litlum sem engum hagvexti. Samfara žessu geta vextir snarhękkaš og gjaldmišill Kina hękkaš žannig aš viš flytjum inn veršbólgu. Verš aš segja žaš aš mér finnst śtlķtiš ekki bjart.


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